I believe all of the 1 through 9 seeds are safely in regardless of what happens in the Conference Tournaments. Seton Hall is also a lock. So we have 10 spots available now, which may shrink depending on what happens over the next 5 days. These 15 teams are battling for one of those 10 spots....Utah State, Texas, Minnesota, Indiana, St. John's, TCU, Florida, Ohio State, NC State, Temple, Clemson, Belmont, Alabama, Arizona State, and Creighton.
First off the Clemson vs NC State game today is HUGE! I believe the loser will be left out of the tournament. As for the winner, it would be best for them to then beat Virginia tomorrow to feel safe. But as long as there isn't mass chaos in conference tournaments I feel like the winner of today's game will at least be in the First Four.
Utah State: As long as they avoid losing in the 1st round of the MWC Tourney to lowly New Mexico or Wyoming, they should be safely in. Regardless, they will probably still make it, but to feel safe they need to avoid a really bad loss.
Texas: It would be best if they won at least 1 game to avoid finishing 16-16. Not sure the committee will find that .500 record appealing. If they beat Kansas, they should be a lock. If they lose, I'm not so sure they will make this tournament, despite their strong SOS and high BPI to go along with 5 Quad 1 wins and another 4 Quad 2 wins. I mean how can you finish the season 16-16 and get an at large birth?? Well this year's bubble is as weak as ever, so there is still a chance that happens.
Minnesota: A win over Penn State on a neutral court would actually be a quad 1 win on Thursday. Win that game and they should be safely in regardless of what happens in the Purdue game. However, lose to Penn State and they may be in the First Four at best.
Indiana: With 6 quad 1 wins under their belt, I feel like they should be safely in this tournament if they take down Ohio State on Thursday. They would probably even avoid playing in the First Four with 1 win. Of course a 3rd win over Michigan State would all but assure them avoiding Dayton next week. A loss to the Buckeyes may mean they find themselves on the wrong side of this bubble despite having the superior quality wins compared to most bubble teams.
Ohio State: Basically the exact same as Indiana. Win and they should be in, lose and they may find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble on Sunday.
St. John's: It would be best for the Johnnies to avoid a first round loss to Depaul tonight. They have the quality wins to make it regardless. But losing to Depaul 3 times in one season, along with getting swept by Xavier and Providence, doesn't look that appealing on a resume. The fact they swept Marquette is what is keeping them afloat right now. Will it be enough? We will find out.
TCU: Avoiding a 2nd loss to Oklahoma State tonight would be ideal. If they lose that one they would be in the First Four at best, and may find themselves just outside. Win tonight and they aren't a lock unless they take down Kansas State tomorrow. But their odds would be better if they can avoid the bad loss tonight.
Florida: Out of all the bubble teams, they have the fewest wins over Quad 1 and 2 combined than any team not named Belmont or Utah State. Obviously they have a ton more losses than those 2 teams though. With only 3 quad 1 wins and another 3 in Quad 2, they may still need another quality victory to get them into the Big Dance. A win over Arkansas on Thursday would be a quad 2 win. A loss and they may be in a tough situaton where they are in the First Four at best. A 2nd win over LSU in the quarterfinals would all but assure they make it.
Temple: Avoiding a quarterfinal loss to either Wichita State or East Carolina would be in the Owls best interest if they want to make the Big Dance. They may still find themselves in the First Four though with a win there followed by a loss to Cincinnati in the semifinals. Win their next 2 games and they would be a lock.
Belmont: The one team on this list that has no games left and must wait and see what happens with fellow bubble teams. Obviously their best chance would be to hope a lot of bubble teams end up doing very little to boost their resumes over the coming days.
Alabama: I believe the Tide need to beat Ole Miss at the very least. Even then, they would be in the First Four at best probably. To be safely in this tournament and avoid the First Four they probably need to beat Kentucky as well. If they lose to Ole Miss, I find it hard to believe they can make this tournament.
Arizona State: Avoiding another Quad 3 loss would be in their best interest if the Sun Devils want to get an At-large bid. Essentially that means winning their 1st 2 games and making the Pac-12 Championship game. If they do that, they may sneak in regardless if they lose to someone not named Washington in the Championship. I know they have 4 wins over Tournament teams, but the fact they have 8 losses to non-tourney teams including 2 in quad 4 is not appealing whatsoever.
Creighton: I feel like Creighton needs another quality win to have any shot at making the tournament without an auto bid. In order to make the Big Dance they need to beat Xavier and then take down Villanova in the semifinals. They may have a shot even if they lose in the Championship then. If Butler or Providence upsets Villanova, then Creighton probably needs to win the Big East Tournament to get in.
My top 4 seeds in each region...
East: Virginia, Tennessee, Purdue, Kansas State
South: Kentucky, Duke, Houston, Wisconsin
Midwest: North Carolina, Michigan State, LSU, Kansas
West: Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech, Florida State
Here is my current seed list:
1's: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2's: Duke, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
3's: LSU, Houston, Texas Tech, Purdue
4's: Kansas, Florida State, Wisconsin, Kansas State
5's: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi State
6's: Villanova, Wofford, Nevada, Auburn
7's: Buffalo, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Louisville
8's: Iowa, Baylor, Syracuse, UCF
9's: Washington, VCU, Oklahoma, Mississippi
10's: Seton Hall, Utah State, Texas, Minnesota
11's: Indiana, St. John's, TCU, Florida*, Ohio St*
12's: NC State*, Temple*, Saint Mary's, Murray State, New Mexico State
13's: Liberty, Vermont, UC Irvine, Northeastern
14's: Yale, Old Dominion, Texas State, Northern Kentucky
15's: Montana, Bucknell, Bradley, Gardner Webb
16's: Sam Houston St, Texas Southern, North Dakota St*, Fairleigh Dickinson*, Norfolk State*, Iona*
* denotes play-in game
Last 4 Byes: Minnesota, Indiana, St. John's, TCU
Last 4 in (in order): Florida, Ohio St, NC State, Temple (last team in)
First 5 out: Clemson, Belmont, Alabama, Arizona State, Creighton
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